未来50 a长江三角洲地区干旱和洪涝灾害风险预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.05.009

Abstract

Abstract: The Yangtze River Delta region has a dense population and high economic development.Under the background of global warming,the risk of future drought and flood in this region will change.Based on the results from 26 CMIP 5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5) global climate models,the drought and flood risk were quantitatively projected in the Yangtze River Delta region for the next 50 years (dividing two periods,2021-2040 and 2046-2065).The results show that the intensity of drought and flood risk reduces from north to south in the Yangtze River Delta region.According to the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6 to 8.5 scenarios,the flood risk in the northern part of the Yangtze River will gradually increase,while the drought risk shows a slightly different pattern.Under the RCP 8.5 scenario,the drought and flood risk is the most serious during the second period of the next 50 years among all scenarios and is higher than the area increment in the IV grade (including the IV grade) in the Yangtze River Delta region.The northern Jiangsu and northern Anhui province is the overlying region for the 5th-drought and the 4th-graded flood risks,while the southern Jiangsu province and Shanghai are that for the highest level of the 5th-grade of drought and flood risk.

Key words: CMIP5, Drought, Flood, Risk, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), Projection

CLC Number:

YIN Xiao-dong, DONG Si-yan, HAN Zhen-yu, WANG Rong. Projected risk of drought and flood at Yangtze River Delta for the next 50 years[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(5): 66-75.

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Projected risk of drought and flood at Yangtze River Delta for the next 50 years

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